Have we seen this week the beginning of the end for Gordon Brown's attempt to be the next Prime Minister? The flashy Budget Speech has clearly backfired. It was the sort of silly presentation that one would have expected from Mandelson and one criticises Brown's judgement (again) on such a silly attempt to strengthen his image. It assumed that every one else was stupid and would not see through the subterfuge. But probably of more damage is the film sequence, now on a lot of webs, of him picking his nose in public. When things start to go wrong things start to go wrong.

Against this background we have the developing Iran crisis and do not forget that the recent Lebanon/Israeli conflagration started with the capture of two Israeli soldiers. Clearly Mr Blair regrets his commitment to resign sometime soon and a fully blown up crisis could give him the opportunity to say that it would be irresponsible of him to resign at a time of crisis for the country. Stranger things have happened!