In the present world economic debacle everyone appears to advocate that we have to fund a recovery by throwing money we don't have at the problem. The only way we may be able to do this is by printing more money. I have wondered (although I have not so far blogged on the subject) whether this will inevitably lead to severe inflation down the line. It was interesting to come across a blog on the Financial Times that more or less addressed the same subject all be it more eloquently than I could do so.

Morgan Stanley’s Jocahcim Fels and Spyros Andreopoulos looked at the possibility of hyperinflation hitting the western shores of the UK, Europe and the US. They said one stark lesson from the ongoing financial and economic crisis is that so-called black swans — large-impact, hard-to-predict and seemingly rare events — can occur more frequently than generally believed. With policymakers around the world throwing massive conventional and unconventional monetary and fiscal stimuli at their economies they thought it is worth exploring the black swan event of very high inflation or even hyperinflation.

The risk of hyperinflation cannot be dismissed very easily any longer. The classification of hyperinflation is an episode where the inflation rate exceeds 50 per cent per month. In history this has occurred in the 1920s in Austria, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Russia. In 1923, for example, Germany experienced a 3.25m per cent inflation rate in a single month. Since the 1950s hyperinflation has been experienced in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Peru, Ukraine and Zimbabwe.

The root cause of hyperinflation is excessive money supply growth, usually caused by governments instructing their central banks to help finance expenditures through rapid money creation. It could possibly happen in Europe or the US under certain conditions.

Firstly, the rapid expansion of the monetary base by the Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank and the Bank of England would have to continue and feed into a more rapid and sustained expansion of money in the hands of the general public. Secondly, governments would have to face difficulties financing their bailout packages and funding their debt. Lastly, public confidence in the government’s ability to service debt without resorting to the printing press would have to disappear, as well as the government’s actual ability to withstand the pressure to do so in the first place.

And while all of the above is an extreme scenario the pundits Fels and Andreopoulus concluded that given the size of the current and prospective economic and financial problems, and given the size of the monetary and fiscal stimulus that central banks and governments are throwing at these problems, investors would be well advised not to ignore this tail risk, especially as markets are priced for the opposite outcome of lasting deflation in the next several years. Put differently, they believe that buying some insurance against the black swan event of high inflation or even hyperinflation makes sense and is relatively cheap currently. They add that when hyperinflation occurred in the eastern block countries towards the end of the communist era, most citizens hedged via significant purchases of black-market US dollars, the US dollar becoming the effective proxy store of value. This time round, that would not be an option.

My own view is that there may of course be an upside in hyperinflation. Given the vast amounts that need to be borrowed now the effect of high inflation might be to minimise in relative terms the cost of the present borrowings. But I do not have an answer and what is really worrying is that neither does anyone else.

At a time when we are heading for a 1930's type depression I wondered about the relevance and priority of providing for single sex wards.

Certainly in an ideal world they are desirable but hospitals after all are primarily for the curing of diseases and the mending of bodies. If in the process of achieving these priority objectives it means that some lady has a fleeting view of a male arse then I see no great problem. Given the multiplicity of problems we as a nation face one wonders whether Mr Johnson might not have postponed his latest great initiative.

There are some politicians who increasingly irritate me. To the list that comprises Paddy Ashdown, David Owens, Norman Lamont and Dennis Skinner there is another applicant by the name of David Miliband. I am not quite sure why he is so irritating but it may be because he is well dressed, articulate, urbane, educated and invariably wrong. He is a disaster as Foreign Secretary and upsetting our relationship with India (following his disastrous spat with Putin) is a feat that few could have achieved.

It is almost six months since I last blogged and I had intended to forego the self indulgence. However we are in such a disasterous situation that I feel obliged to add my twopenny contribution.

There were not many interested in politics who were surprised by the disclosures in yesterday's Sunday Times. The Lords is an anocronism and their Lordships totally irrelevent to a modern democracy. The one thing they possible had going for them was that unlike those in the House of Commons they possible had some integrity. Yesterdays allegations and todays disclosure of the actual recordings of conversation suggests that we were were totally wrong to give them the benfit of the doubt that somehow they were different to their colleagues in the lower house.

They draw up to £325 per day for signing in and out and have the benefit of the best and cheapest dining facilities in central London.

It is of some interest to me at least that The USA has a population of just over 300 million people and 100 Senators in their Upper House. In the UK we have 740 Peers, when we have a population of just over 60 million. Using the US standard we should need 20, not 740, in a reformed House of Lords.

Not only are their Lordships an irrelevance and probably corrupt but there are far too many of them.

The excellent blog by Guy Fawkes has reported that no fewer than 472 BBC staff were hanging on the telephone 10 days ago to discuss its coverage of the upcoming US party conventions. Fawkes suggests that this happens because there is no serious budget control, no profit motive and unlimited access to funds courtesy of a feudal taxation system to the benefit of the broadcasting barons.

Like the millions squandered on the foul mouthed Ross this latest wastage of licence fees are the seeds for the eventual demise of the BBC. They are their own worst enemy and make it very difficult for traditional supporters of the BBC and public service media to continue their support and argue against the right wing views of the good Mr Fawkes.

I was involved in a discussion recently about red and grey squirrels and whether the latter as intruders should be culled. It seemed to me that the grey squirrel and its place in the UK is reminiscent and a metaphor for all the collective xenophobic instincts about Johnny Foreigner.

Just returned from a visit to Ireland to attend a wedding and stay with my in-laws. Thoroughly enjoyable few days particularly as my brother in law is recovering from a serious cancer. The wedding party at the bride's parents house was all I have come to expect in Ireland. Great hospitality - the mussels had been caught and cooked that day and the accompanying Chateauneuf Du Pape (I enjoy a good red wine with mussels) was superb. Ireland is beginning to have the economic jitters the UK is experiencing but it has not so far destroyed the Irish enthusiasm and ability to party.

The rate of inflation is expected to have risen above 3% when the figures for May are released by the Bank of England later today. This would force the Bank's Governor to write to the Chancellor explaining why the rate is above the target of 2%

The figure of 2% like many other targets of this Government is a figure plucked out of the deep blue sky. It is preposterous to think that if inflation in the rest of the world increases that somehow the United Kingdom will not be affected because the former Chancellor in his great wisdom has decreed that it should not rise above 2%. The consequential act of the Governor writing to the Chancellor is as meaningless as the subjects of King Canute explaining why the tide did not obey His Majesty's instruction.

What is required, and I have argued this since the figure of 2% was first introduced, is that the target should be the average inflation rate of a basket of similar currencies. It is madness to introduce measures to maintain a 2% rate when the rest of the world is inflating at a much greater level.

There was a letter in the Times this week pointing out that the USA has a population of just over 300 million people and 100 Senators in their Upper House. In the UK we have 740 Peers, when we have a population of just over 60 million. Using the US standard we should need 20, not 740, in a reformed House of Lords.

Yet another glaring example of our capacity to over govern and waste money.

A return to blogging after a less than totally successful sojourn in France and a longish period of helping (or as some might say hindering) the recovery of Maura from a bad fracture of the tibia and fibia which had to be reset on her return. We stayed at an old presbytery in the South West of France at a place called Bournac next to a Cemetery and I have in mind to write up my diary about the experience. It will be entitled 'The curse of Bournac'.

Leaving is not all sweet sorrow.

One of the immediately sad aspects of moving to France is that I have had to resign as Vice Chair of the Charity Age Concern Southampton, a Charity that campaigns on behalf of the elderly in this City. Of equal concern is that Maura will need to stop acting as a voluntary case worker for The Soldiers, Sailors and Air Force Association. They are a remarkable charity who provide real assistance to ex-members of the Services who need help. The Charity does a remarkable job for those who offer the final sacrifice and fall on hard times and who are neglected by our Government.

Most things so far on the downside but hopefully the benefits of moving will become apparent soon.

Iran, France and the Bomb.

Bernard Kouchner, the French Foreign Minister proposal to prepare for war is dangerous in the extreme. The threat to world peace may well be Monsieur Kouchner himself.

The five acknowledged nuclear powers who possess about 31,000 nuclear warheads are USA, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. India and Pakistan have not formally placed their nuclear arsenal on a delivery system and the position of Israel is unclear although it is generally believed that they should be included as possessing a capability (probably with US assistance) to deliver a nuclear weapon.

For years the United Kingdom subscribed to the theory that the best deterrent was the threat of mutual destruction. Since Iran is the most important country in the Middle East and since Israel is considered to have a capability with US assistance to deliver a nuclear weapon the logic would appear to be that even if Iran eventually possesses a bomb it would be a contribution to peace rather than war in the area.

Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.
Euripides (484 BC - 406 BC)

I wonder whether insanity is approaching. Let me explain.

I am 73 settled in Southampton but have decided to move to France for an indefinite period or indefinitely. Moving house is said to be one of the most stressful thing one can do. To move to a country where you have an inadequate knowledge of their language and customs and at an age many would consider advanced may well be bordering on insanity. We shall see.

The first step was to give notice to terminate my tenancy which I have done with a little sadness and reluctance. But to go for the each way bet and retain my flat does not appeal.

How to Speak Your Mind Aussie Style.

As those who know me are aware I am a great fan of Australia having spent the best part of six years there. I like their style, values and honesty and in particular their unequivocal political honesty.

There was an interview with Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. He was asked what he thought about the handful of protesters outside the GNAT’s conference.
He said "Well they are from the Socialist Alliance. These people are losers, you know. They lost the Soviet Union and they lost the Cold war. Yes I thought about them. It was raining and I thought the harder it rains the wetter they’ll get".

There are many in the Labour Party, including me, who will subscribe to the sentiment.

Guns.

The Government's plans for 'drop-off zones' for illegally held guns is at best a pathetic response to the problem. It does nothing to address and correct the core problem of why some children and youths feel obliged to carry such weapons and why they are so alienated from the rest of us.

For at least two decades successive governments have been warned about the inevitability of a breakdown in society if no action was taken to stop the increasing number of young people being shunted in to an expanding underclass and little or nothing has been done about it.

What is needed is action to create a more egalitarian and equal society. The disgrace of the very rich being allowed to live and work here when they are non-resident for taxation purposes would be a useful start. Immediate investment in education to bring our state schools up to the standard of public schools is an absolute priority. We need to stop fiddling with exams and other aspects of the education system. What is required is real investment to ensure that the school environment and facilities match the best available in public schools, that Headmasters are free to run their schools without interference, that class sizes are reduced by at least half and that salaries are such that they attract the best of talent into the teaching profession.

Perhaps if these and other measures were taken now to attack the basic problem we could anticipate a more decent society in ten-twenty years time.

Favourite Jokes

On Radio 4 the great and very funny Barry Cryer was asked what was his favourite joke. He had no hesitation in relating that whilst driving in the countryside he ran over a cockerel. Mortified he went to see the farmer's wife and explained what had happened and offered to replace the deceased bird.

The farmers wife looked at him curiously and said "What ever grabs you - the chickens are in the third building on the left."

There is a new book by Lord David Owen entitled the Hubris Syndrome. I have not yet read it but my understanding from listening to various radio interviews is that Lord Owen claims that both Mrs Thatcher and Mr Blair were in Hubris prior to their Nemesis.

I have never been a great fan of Lord Owen but in life it is difficult to get everything wrong. I suspect, in terms of Hubris and Nemesis and the two former Prime Ministers' that Lord Owen is correct.

That said it maybe worthwhile repeating the circumstances and consequences of Dr Owens appointment as Foreign Secretary. I was a member of Her Majesty's Diplomatic Service at the time. Dr Owen, as he then was, was plucked from relative obscurity (No. 17) in Jim Callaghan's Cabinet and was made Foreign Secretary (At least No. 3). The promotion surprised many at the time and put Dr Owen in Mr Callaghan's debt. The opportunity for repayment came quickly although contrived and Peter Jay, son of Labour politician Douglas Jay and husband of Callaghan's daughter Margaret, was appointed to Washington as HM Ambassador by Dr Owen. Part of the rather disastrous appointment was that Peter Ramsbottom who was a very talented and a highly respected member of that body of gypsies that comprise the Diplomatic Service was moved on to the pleasant but much less regarded post of Governor of Bermuda.

The Jays were remembered in Washington by their sexual activities rather that their contribution to Anglo/American relationships. Peter put the Nanny in the family way and Mrs Jay had a fairly well publicised affair with Carl Bernstein. He was of course one of the journalists who broke the Watergate story through the columns of The Washington Times.

But everybody prospers in one way or the other. Peter Jay later became an advisor to the repugnant Robert Maxwell and Baroness Jay became leader of the Labour Party in the House of Lords.

A new Administrative Capital for the United Kingdom

The recent floods emphasise the unsuitability of the present plans to build thousands of new homes in the South East and calls for a new United Kingdom strategy on development and particularly housing.

The South East based on London is the administrative, financial, commercial, tourist and artistic capital of the United Kingdom and has to provide housing, infrastructure, commercial accommodation and services for all these activities. There is nothing Government can do about where the various sectors of the economy locate (nor should it be allowed to) except it can do something about London and the South East being the administrative capital of the United Kingdom.

The problem of overcrowding and excessive demands for accommodation and services in London and the South East requires a radical decision that would move Whitehall, Parliament and the Royal Households to the provinces. London would remain the centre of the other activities. The parsimonious movement of a small amount of Government Offices and Agencies to the provinces is gesture politics and does nothing substantial to resolve the central problem.

What is required (and it is a fundamental and absolute requirement) is the wholesale removal of Central Government, its appendages and paraphernalia to a location (or locations) outside the South East. Such a relocation would at a stroke radically diminish the demand for property and services in London and the South East.

It is interesting that many countries (USA, Australia, Canada, Brazil and others) now have a commercial capital and an administrative capital and there is absolutely no reason why the United Kingdom should not follow their example.

The Brown/Miliband School of Diplomacy.

The current calculated attempt to portray the United Kingdom as a strong resolute international player has a price. It may go down well at home initially but the damage to United States and Russian relations will come at an increased cost. There is an old Irish saying about asked for directions. And that is "I wouldn't have started from here in the first place". In the arena of international diplomacy we need not have been where we are in these important relationships and we should now back off and mend our fences.

Our most important ally whether we like it or not is the United States. We enjoy many benefits and I fail to see why Malloch Brown and Alexander were let off the leash and allowed to stray into areas for which they hold no direct responsibility. Malloch Brown is supposed to be concentrating on Africa, Asia and the reform of the United Nations whilst Alexander should have enough on his plate as International Development Secretary. Their outbursts were undoubtedly cleared with the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary and the judgement to go ahead is open to serious challenge. It is not in our national interest to needlessly exacerbate our relations with the US.

With Russia we have refused to give up their citizens and we knew well that the Russian constitution would not permit the extradition of Mr Lugovoi the ex-KGB operative. What therefore was the point (other than projecting strength at home) of blustering and fuming and expelling four of their diplomats. The self interest of the United Kingdom demands we repair the damage done by the escalation of the problem. Russia has the oil and gas we need and the business opportunities for our companies. We need Russia more than they need us.

Yorkshire Floods.

As a Cumbrian by birth I am not a natural ally of Yorkshire. But the situation in Hull and other parts of Yorkshire calls for a suspension of any lack of empathy and the adoption of a pragmatic programme of assistance to those who have lost everything. Government assistance will essentially repair the infrastructure of roads,schools etc, and whilst nobody has said so, those who have lost everything and are not insured will in the end be left to their own devices unless extraordinary measures are taken.

What is required is the establishment of a National Fund similar to funds that have been established for other disasters both nationally and internationally. There is a significant silence from those Charities who are normally at the forefront of calls for money when disasters strike. The Government could assist by, in addition to the programmes announced by Mr Brown, establish an Independent Recovery Fund and by making the first contribution of say £100 million. They could also offer to make any substantial contribution of over £100,000 from companies and rich individuals deductible for taxation purposes. The fund would need to be administered quickly and effectively and a decision about who or whom should do so would be for urgent consideration